Fuzzy cognitive maps in estimating the repercussions of oil/gas exploration on politico-economic issues in Cyprus
Date Issued
2011
Author(s)
DOI
10.1109/FUZZY.2011.6007655
Abstract
Some important politico-economic dynamics, in relation
to different scenarios involving the finding and exploitation
of oil/gas in the exclusive economic zone of Cyprus, have been
modeled and examined through the use of suitable fuzzy cognitive
maps. In the interrelated dynamics, various important dynamical
parameters have been taken into account, reflecting the interests
of the republic of Cyprus, as well as the interests of the Greek
and Turkish Cypriot communities. In some respects these interests
are antagonistic, while in others could be cooperative. The
interests of other countries involved in the Cyprus politicoeconomic
problem have also been taken into account. These are
primarily Greece, Turkey, United Kingdom, USA, Russia, Israel
and the European Union. The main parameters involved in the
interrelated dynamics are nationalism, religiousness, knowledge
of history, level of educational development, tourism, unemployment,
external debt, oil extraction, Anatolian settlers, and the
general interests of the countries involved and those of the two
communities. The system that has been developed can be used to
study the effects of a change in any parameter or a combination
of parameters, on the growth and stability of the remaining parameters.
Different scenarios on the effects on economies, politics
and military involvement have been implemented, observed and
appraised.
to different scenarios involving the finding and exploitation
of oil/gas in the exclusive economic zone of Cyprus, have been
modeled and examined through the use of suitable fuzzy cognitive
maps. In the interrelated dynamics, various important dynamical
parameters have been taken into account, reflecting the interests
of the republic of Cyprus, as well as the interests of the Greek
and Turkish Cypriot communities. In some respects these interests
are antagonistic, while in others could be cooperative. The
interests of other countries involved in the Cyprus politicoeconomic
problem have also been taken into account. These are
primarily Greece, Turkey, United Kingdom, USA, Russia, Israel
and the European Union. The main parameters involved in the
interrelated dynamics are nationalism, religiousness, knowledge
of history, level of educational development, tourism, unemployment,
external debt, oil extraction, Anatolian settlers, and the
general interests of the countries involved and those of the two
communities. The system that has been developed can be used to
study the effects of a change in any parameter or a combination
of parameters, on the growth and stability of the remaining parameters.
Different scenarios on the effects on economies, politics
and military involvement have been implemented, observed and
appraised.
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