Earthquake risk assessment for Cyprus
Date Issued
June 2019
Abstract
For the seismic risk assessment at national level, probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA) and risk analysis has been performed being recognized as the most appropriate analysis method for this purpose. Existing seismic hazard and vulnerability models have been implemented at this phase. Maps of Peak Ground Acceleration with 475 and 2500 return periods, according to SHARE seismic source models are illustrated, as well as hazard curves for the major cities following PSHA. The risk outcome for 475 and 2500 years return periods is given in terms of monetary loss and is provided at aggregated level for the island and the major cities and spatially distributed with gridded maps. Disaggregation of the loss per structural typology highlights the typologies that contribute the most to structural economic loss due to seismic events with given probabilities of occurrence. The risk analysis of two seismic scenarios with 10% and 2% probability of occurrence was performed. Monetary and human loss (casualties, injuries, displaced population) was estimated as well as damage distribution among the main structural typologies. Reference is made to the importance of a future social vulnerability and integrated risk analysis. © 2019, National Technical University of Athens. All rights reserved.