An idea for a new modeling approach of climatic changes. A correlation study for Cyprus

Abstract

Mathematical Modeling in climatic changes prediction has been based on more or less simple energy balances considering the Earth along with its atmosphere, with the so-called solar "constant" taken as an invariant. However evidence has been supplied in previous WSEAS Conferences that this constant, S, does not remain a constant but it does fluctuate, following the cycles of the solar activity. Furthermore the transmission parameters concerning the input and the output energy, τ V and τ IR from/to the system Earth-Atmosphere also vary and this reflects the human activity leading to increased greenhouse gas quantities, being blamed for a dramatic climatic change the last decades. Thus, considering those fluctuating properties, the following equation for Earth's mean temperature, T, has been developed (A being albedo equal to 0.3 and σ is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant) (Equation presented) with the following multivariate treatment: (Equation presented) We need to obtain the derivatives: (Equation presented) because all S, τ IR, τ V change