Modeling the Transition to Cleaner Fuels Within the Maritime Industry
Date Issued
January 2025
Abstract
Shipping is a prominent sector within the Greek economy and faces several challenges in decarbonizing as
prescribed by the FuelEU Maritime Regulation which is cornerstone of the EU’s decarbonization efforts in the
shipping sector, specifically targeting the fuels used by vessels, implemented from 1 January 2025. FuelEU Maritime
aims to reduce greenhouse gas intensity in ships above 5,000 gross tonnage at European ports by aiming for a 2%
decrease by 2025 and an 80% reduction by 2050. The targets cover CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions over
the full lifecycle of fuels used onboard. From January 1, 2030, passenger and container ships must use on-shore power
supply (OPS) or alternative zero-emission technologies in ports covered under Article 9 of the Alternative Fuels
Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR). Member States may apply the obligation to ports not covered by Article 9 from
January 1, 2030. FuelEU Maritime's goal-based and technology-neutral approach allows for innovation and the
development of new sustainable fuels and energy conversion technologies. The regulation also provides flexibility
mechanisms, supporting existing fleets in compliance strategies and rewarding first-movers for early investment in
energy transition (Directorate of Mobility & Transport, 2024). In this paper we present the application of a free, opensource Investment Decision Support Tool, called MaritimeGCH, to model the transition to cleaner fuels within the
maritime industry. The study tests a set of scenarios from slow to fast transition to cleaner fuels within the Greek
shipping sector, and explores their effect on fleet optimization decisions. This set of scenarios reflects the potential
evolution of some fuels starting phasing out (e.g. Oil and RefPO), being replaced by the transition fuels (LNG and
LPG), while others (green fuels) will ultimately become more prevalent in the future (MeOH, NH3 and H2).
prescribed by the FuelEU Maritime Regulation which is cornerstone of the EU’s decarbonization efforts in the
shipping sector, specifically targeting the fuels used by vessels, implemented from 1 January 2025. FuelEU Maritime
aims to reduce greenhouse gas intensity in ships above 5,000 gross tonnage at European ports by aiming for a 2%
decrease by 2025 and an 80% reduction by 2050. The targets cover CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions over
the full lifecycle of fuels used onboard. From January 1, 2030, passenger and container ships must use on-shore power
supply (OPS) or alternative zero-emission technologies in ports covered under Article 9 of the Alternative Fuels
Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR). Member States may apply the obligation to ports not covered by Article 9 from
January 1, 2030. FuelEU Maritime's goal-based and technology-neutral approach allows for innovation and the
development of new sustainable fuels and energy conversion technologies. The regulation also provides flexibility
mechanisms, supporting existing fleets in compliance strategies and rewarding first-movers for early investment in
energy transition (Directorate of Mobility & Transport, 2024). In this paper we present the application of a free, opensource Investment Decision Support Tool, called MaritimeGCH, to model the transition to cleaner fuels within the
maritime industry. The study tests a set of scenarios from slow to fast transition to cleaner fuels within the Greek
shipping sector, and explores their effect on fleet optimization decisions. This set of scenarios reflects the potential
evolution of some fuels starting phasing out (e.g. Oil and RefPO), being replaced by the transition fuels (LNG and
LPG), while others (green fuels) will ultimately become more prevalent in the future (MeOH, NH3 and H2).