Earthquake Risk Assessment. Case Study: Cyprus

Abstract

Short-term prediction of earthquake events is still impossible and earthquake risk assessment is therefore necessary to develop risk management strategies and deal with their consequences. For this purpose, an earthquake risk assessment framework was developed at the University of Sheffield and was demonstrated using Cyprus as a case study. This initial attempt focused on the hazard assessment model, since the vulnerability aspect was beyond the scope of the work, and was dealt in a rather simplistic manner. The study estimated an average annual earthquake risk close to CY£1 million. A continuation of the initial attempt deemed vital to improve the accuracy of the framework primarily by improving the vulnerability aspect and secondly by producing local attenuation laws. Eventually, the refined attenuation and vulnerability models will be substituted in the existing framework thus fulfilling within acceptable accuracy levels the Earthquake Risk Assessment requirements.