Gold Open Access
Green Open AccessPreliminary Evaluation of The Cyprus Erythemal Irradiance Forecasting System
Journal
IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
Date Issued
July 16, 2025
Abstract
Cyprus experiences some of the highest levels of solar radiation in Europe, which presents both opportunities for solar energy and risks associated with ultraviolet (UV) exposure. In response to the need for better public awareness and UV protection measures, the Cyprus Erythemal Irradiance Forecasting System (CERYFOS) was developed to forecast the UV Index (UVI) across the island. This paper presents a preliminary evaluation of the CERYFOS model’s accuracy by comparing forecasted UVI values with ground-based measurements taken from December 2023 to September 2024. The model’s predictions were assessed against data from a Kipp & Zonen SUV-E actinometer and a Bentham DMc150 spectrophotometer, operating in Limassol. Results showed that the system performs well under clear-sky conditions, achieving a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 0.36[UVI units] and minimal bias. The study also highlights the influence of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and ozone variability on forecast accuracy. These findings underline the need for model refinements, particularly concerning cloud impact and atmospheric parameter representation. With further improvements, CERYFOS has the potential to enhance public safety by providing accurate UVI forecasts and increasing awareness of UV exposure risks in Cyprus.
Funding
The authors acknowledge the EXCELSIOR: ERATOSTHENES: Excellence Research Centre for Earth
Surveillance and Space-Based Monitoring of the Environment H2020 Widespread Teaming project
(www.excelsior2020.eu, accessed on 13 March 2023). The EXCELSIOR project has received funding from
the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement No
857510, from the Government of the Republic of Cyprus through the Directorate General for the European
Programmes, Coordination and Development and the Cyprus University of Technology
Surveillance and Space-Based Monitoring of the Environment H2020 Widespread Teaming project
(www.excelsior2020.eu, accessed on 13 March 2023). The EXCELSIOR project has received funding from
the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement No
857510, from the Government of the Republic of Cyprus through the Directorate General for the European
Programmes, Coordination and Development and the Cyprus University of Technology
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Scopus Subject Areas
Environmental Science (all)
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Earth and Planetary Sciences (all)