Mechanistic Modeling of Overwater Dispersal for Terrestrial Vertebrates with Applications in Palaeobiogeography and Ecology
Date Issued
2026
Author(s)
Pantelides, Alexandros
Cyprus University of Technology
Advisor
Upchurch, Paul
Abstract
Overwater dispersal has played an important role in shaping the distributions of terrestrial vertebrates, yet the physical feasibility of such movements is rarely evaluated mechanistically. This thesis develops a bottom-up framework for estimating energetic, hydrodynamic and environmental constraints on movement across aquatic barriers. First, a mechanistic model combining bioenergetics and hydrodynamics is developed to estimate optimal swimming speed, minimum cost of transport, and maximum swimming distance and duration. The framework is then extended to examine how ocean currents and continuous versus intermittent locomotion alter energetic expenditure and theoretical dispersal limits. Finally, a spatial framework projects specified distance- or duration-based constraints onto modern and palaeogeographic reconstructions for cases of continuous active swimming or passive drifting. Applications to extant terrestrial and semi-aquatic vertebrates and extinct non-avian dinosaurs show that feasibility is contingent on physiology, locomotor behaviour, environmental transport and parameter uncertainty, while simple shortest-distance estimates provide only a first-order representation of accessibility across complex marine landscapes. Together, these approaches provide conditional estimates of dispersal feasibility and complement traditional top-down biogeographic inference of overwater dispersal by adding a mechanistic test of whether such hypothetical events were physically achievable.
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