Next-Day Solar Irradiance Forecasting: A Preliminary Study in Limassol
Journal
IEEE xplore
Date Issued
December 19, 2024
Abstract
This study presents a preliminary evaluation of a next-day solar irradiance forecast system in Limassol, Cyprus, over six months. For the evaluation, forecasted Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) was compared with high-quality ground measurements. The system showed strong correlation with measured values at both hourly and daily timescales. Hourly forecasts exhibited a correlation coefficient (r2) of 0.84 and a Mean Bias Error (MBE) of 23.4 W/m2 (4.8%), while daily energy forecasts showed improved performance with an r2 of 0.86 and an MBE of 0.3 kWh/m2 (4.7%). The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) was 123.7 W/m2 (25.4%) for hourly forecasts and 0.8 kWh/m2 (13%) for daily forecasts, indicating that daily aggregation reduces error magnitudes by averaging out short-term fluctuations and discrepancies. Some discrepancies were due to the model’s limited ability to capture cloud and aerosol variations. Future work will focus on investigating these factors to enhance the forecast system’s accuracy and reliability.
Funding
The authors acknowledge the ’EXCELSIOR’: ERATOS-THENES: Excellence Research Centre for Earth Surveillance and Space-Based Monitoring of the Environment H2020 Widespread Teaming project (www.excelsior2020.eu). The ’EXCELSIOR’ project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 857510, from the Government of the Republic of Cyprus through the Directorate General for the European Programmes, Coordination and Development and the Cyprus University of Technology.
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