Sensitivity Analysis of Key Parameters in Decision Making of Two-Stage Evolutionary Optimization Maintenance Strategies

Abstract

Preventative maintenance (PM) measures for bridges are proactive maintenance actions which aim to prevent or delay a deterioration process that may lead to failure. This type of maintenance can be justified on economic grounds since it can extend the life of the bridge and avoid the need for unplanned essential/corrective maintenance. Due to the high importance of the effective integration of PM measures in the maintenance strategies of bridges, the authors have developed a two-stage evolutionary optimization methodology based on genetic algorithm (GA) principles which links the probabilistic effectiveness of various PM measures with their costs in order to develop optimum PM strategies. In this paper, the sensitivity of the methodology to various key input parameters of the optimization methodology is examined in order to quantify their effects and identify possible trends in the optimum PM intervention profiles. The results of the sensitivity studies highlight the combined use of both proactive and reactive PM measures in deriving optimum strategy solutions. The precise mix and sequence of PM measures is clearly a function of the relative effectiveness and cost of the different available PM options as well as the various key parameters such as discount rate, target probability of failure, initial probability of failure and service life period examined. While the results highlight the need for more reliable data they also demonstrate the robustness and usefulness of the methodology; in the case where data is limited it can be used as a comparative tool to improve understanding of the effects of various strategies and enhance the decision making process.