Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14279/23061
Title: Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases and estimates of the reproductive numbers 1 month into the epidemic, Italy, 28 January to 31 March 2020
Authors: Riccardo, Flavia 
Ajelli, Marco 
Andrianou, Xanthi 
Bella, Antonino 
Del Manso, Martina 
Fabiani, Massimo 
Bellino, Stefania 
Boros, Stefano 
Urdiales, Alberto Mateo 
Marziano, Valentina 
Rota, Maria Cristina 
Filia, Antonietta 
D'Ancona, Fortunato P 
Siddu, Andrea 
Punzo, Ornella 
Trentini, Filippo 
Guzzetta, Giorgio 
Poletti, Piero 
Stefanelli, Paola 
Castrucci, Maria Rita 
Ciervo, Alessandra 
Di Benedetto, Corrado 
Tallon, Marco 
Piccioli, Andrea 
Brusaferro, Silvio 
Rezza, Giovanni 
Merler, Stefano 
Pezzotti, Patrizio 
Major Field of Science: Medical and Health Sciences
Field Category: Health Sciences
Keywords: COVID-19;SARS-CoV-2;Descriptive epidemiology;Infectious disease modelling
Issue Date: Dec-2020
Source: Eurosurveillance, 2020, vol. 25, no. 49, pp. 1 - 11
Volume: 25
Issue: 49
Start page: 1
End page: 11
Journal: Eurosurveillance 
Abstract: BackgroundOn 20 February 2020, a locally acquired coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case was detected in Lombardy, Italy. This was the first signal of ongoing transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the country. The number of cases in Italy increased rapidly and the country became the first in Europe to experience a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak.AimOur aim was to describe the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the first COVID-19 cases in Italy amid ongoing control measures.MethodsWe analysed all RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases reported to the national integrated surveillance system until 31 March 2020. We provide a descriptive epidemiological summary and estimate the basic and net reproductive numbers by region.ResultsOf the 98,716 cases of COVID-19 analysed, 9,512 were healthcare workers. Of the 10,943 reported COVID-19-associated deaths (crude case fatality ratio: 11.1%) 49.5% occurred in cases older than 80 years. Male sex and age were independent risk factors for COVID-19 death. Estimates of R0 varied between 2.50 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.18-2.83) in Tuscany and 3.00 (95% CI: 2.68-3.33) in Lazio. The net reproduction number Rt in northern regions started decreasing immediately after the first detection.ConclusionThe COVID-19 outbreak in Italy showed a clustering onset similar to the one in Wuhan, China. R0 at 2.96 in Lombardy combined with delayed detection explains the high case load and rapid geographical spread. Overall, Rt in Italian regions showed early signs of decrease, with large diversity in incidence, supporting the importance of combined non-pharmacological control measures.
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14279/23061
ISSN: 15607917
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.49.2000790
Rights: This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0)
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
Type: Article
Affiliation : Istituto Superiore di Sanità 
Bruno Kessler Foundation 
Indiana University 
Northeastern University 
Cyprus University of Technology 
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed
Appears in Collections:Άρθρα/Articles

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