An image based method for crop yield prediction using remotely sensed and crop canopy data: The case of Paphos district, western Cyprus

Abstract

Remote sensing techniques development have provided the opportunity for optimizing yields in the agricultural procedure and moreover to predict the forthcoming yield. Yield prediction plays a vital role in Agricultural Policy and provides useful data to policy makers. In this context, crop and soil parameters along with NDVI index which are valuable sources of information have been elaborated statistically to test if a) Durum wheat yield can be predicted and b) when is the actual time-window to predict the yield in the district of Paphos, where Durum wheat is the basic cultivation and supports the rural economy of the area. 15 plots cultivated with Durum wheat from the Agricultural Research Institute of Cyprus for research purposes, in the area of interest, have been under observation for three years to derive the necessary data. Statistical and remote sensing techniques were then applied to derive and map a model that can predict yield of Durum wheat in this area. Indeed the semi-empirical model developed for this purpose, with very high correlation coefficient R2=0.886, has shown in practice that can predict yields very good. Students T test has revealed that predicted values and real values of yield have no statistically significant difference. The developed model can and will be further elaborated with more parameters and applied for other crops in the near future.