Uncertainty in Solar Thermal Systems Simulations
Date Issued
October 2008
Author(s)
Abstract
Usually solar systems are modeled with programs, like TRNSYS, using a typical
meteorological year data and a constant consumption profile. This is the most practical
method as all systems modeled are simulated with the same weather conditions and the same
load demand profile, thus it is easier to compare systems of different configurations. In this
paper the effect of introducing uncertainty or noise in the weather data and load pattern is
examined. As it is proved the annual performance of the system is not very much different
compared to the normal non-noisy model whereas the daily and hourly performance shows
some considerable variations. It is believed that the present method gives more reliable
results to the long-term performance evaluation of the systems and should be followed once
the optimum system is obtained as it produces more reliable results. This is more important
in case where guaranteed solar results schemes are followed where possible mistakes could
result in significant financial penalties
meteorological year data and a constant consumption profile. This is the most practical
method as all systems modeled are simulated with the same weather conditions and the same
load demand profile, thus it is easier to compare systems of different configurations. In this
paper the effect of introducing uncertainty or noise in the weather data and load pattern is
examined. As it is proved the annual performance of the system is not very much different
compared to the normal non-noisy model whereas the daily and hourly performance shows
some considerable variations. It is believed that the present method gives more reliable
results to the long-term performance evaluation of the systems and should be followed once
the optimum system is obtained as it produces more reliable results. This is more important
in case where guaranteed solar results schemes are followed where possible mistakes could
result in significant financial penalties
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C99-Eurosun 08.pdf
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