Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ktisis.cut.ac.cy/handle/10488/9242
Title: Dynamic building stock modelling: Application to 11 European countries to support the energy efficiency and retrofit ambitions of the EU
Authors: Sandberg, Nina Holck 
Sartori, Igor 
Heidrich, Oliver 
Dawson, Richard 
Dascalaki, Elena 
Dimitriou, Stella 
Vimm-r, Tomáš 
Filippidou, Faidra 
Stegnar, Gašper 
Šijanec Zavrl, Marjana 
Brattebø, Helge 
Keywords: Comparative analysis;Dwelling stock;Dynamic modelling;Energy efficiency;Europe;Housing;Renovation
Category: Civil Engineering;Civil Engineering
Field: Engineering and Technology
Issue Date: 15-Nov-2016
Publisher: Elsevier Ltd
Source: Energy and Buildings, 2016, Volume 132, Pages 26-38
metadata.dc.doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2016.05.100
Abstract: A dynamic building stock model is applied to simulate the development of dwelling stocks in 11 European countries, over half of all European dwellings, between 1900 and 2050. The model uses time series of population and number of persons per dwelling, as well as demolition and renovation probability functions that have been derived for each country. The model performs well at simulating the long-term changes in dwelling stock composition and expected annual renovation activities. Despite differences in data collection and reporting, the modelled future trends for construction, demolition and renovation activities lead to similar patterns emerging in all countries. The model estimates future renovation activity due to the stock's need for maintenance as a result of ageing. The simulations show only minor future increases in the renovation rates across all 11 countries to between 0.6–1.6%, falling short of the 2.5–3.0% renovation rates that are assumed in many decarbonisation scenarios. Despite this, 78% of all dwellings could benefit from energy efficiency measures by 2050, either as they are constructed (31%) or undergo deep renovation (47%). However, as no more than one deep renovation cycle is likely on this timeframe, it is crucial to install the most energy efficient measures available at these opportunities.
URI: http://ktisis.cut.ac.cy/handle/10488/9242
ISSN: 03787788
Rights: © 2016 The Authors
Type: Article
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