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Title: Forecast of electricity consumption in Cyprus up to the year 2030: The potential impact of climate change
Authors: Zachariadis, Theodoros 
Keywords: Degree-days;Fuel prices;Peak load
Category: Earth and related Environmental Sciences
Field: Natural Sciences
Issue Date: 2010
Publisher: Elsevier Science
Source: Energy Policy, 2010, Volume 38, Issue 2, Pages 744–750.
Abstract: This paper provides a forecast of electricity consumption in Cyprus up to the year 2030, based on econometric analysis of energy use as a function of macroeconomic variables, prices and weather conditions. If past trends continue electricity use is expected to triple in the coming 20–25 years, with the residential and commercial sectors increasing their already high shares in total consumption. Besides this reference scenario it was attempted to assess the impact of climate change on electricity use. According to official projections, the average temperature in the Eastern Mediterranean is expected to rise by about 1 °C by the year 2030. Using our econometrically estimated model, we calculated that electricity consumption in Cyprus may be about 2.9% higher in 2030 than in the reference scenario. This might lead to a welfare loss of 15 million Euros in 2020 and 45 million Euros in 2030; for the entire period 2008–2030 the present value of costs may exceed 200 million Euros (all expressed in constant Euros of 2007). Moreover, we assessed the additional peak electricity load requirements in the future because of climate change: extra load may amount to 65–75 Megawatts (MW) in the year 2020 and 85–95 MW in 2030.
Rights: © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Type: Article
Appears in Collections:Άρθρα/Articles

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