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Title: Dynamic modeling of vehicle populations: An engineering approach for emissions calculations
Authors: Zachariadis, Theodoros 
Samaras, Zissis 
Zierock, Karl Heinz 
Issue Date: 1995
Publisher: Elsevier Science
Source: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1995, Volume 50, Issue 2, Pages 135-149.
Abstract: A model initially developed for forecasts of air pollutant emissions from motor vehicles is presented, with special emphasis on its vehicle dynamics module. Vehicle density forecasts are performed separately for passenger cars, trucks, buses, and motorcycles. Combined with estimates of vehicle usage parameters they are used to predict the total traffic volume up to the year 2010. The internal turnover of the vehicle fleet is simulated with a modified Weibull function, and the technology substitution process is determined nonanalytically. Although more refined approaches have been developed for the prediction of the dynamic behavior of car populations, the one presented here has been designed in such a way that it can be applied to countries where detailed information is lacking or too difficult to find, and even nonexperts can implement it reasonably well.
ISSN: 00401625
DOI: 10.1016/0040-1625(95)00057-H
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